Earlier this year we revealed Britain’s most iconic bakes – bakes that have lasted the test of time.

We know that baking isn’t going anywhere; in fact, it’s Millennials’ second favourite hobby. Who doesn’t love making a lemon drizzle in summer or a trifle during the winter? But what we choose to turn our attention to in the kitchen is changing. Emily Mariko’s viral salmon bowl and the revelation of pesto eggs had us scrambling to try the latest trends from TikTok.

But what about bakes? With 2023 just around the corner, we wanted to find out whether Victoria sponge will stay victorious or trumped by the latest TikTok baking trends.

By using data from Google and TikTok, we’ve created our own Bakeability score to reveal our baking forecast for 2023, a prediction of what bakes are here to stay, and which were a one hit wonder.

What were people searching for in 2022?

First off, we looked at how often Brits are searching for our OG bakes on Google on a monthly basis.  The iconic Victoria sponge and lockdown staple, banana bread, were the most searched for bake on a monthly basis.

Then we explored 2022’s monthly search volume on Google for our baking newcomers, made famous by their popularity on TikTok.

Cinnamon roll was the most searched for item from TikTok fame; the Scandinavian sweet treat has swirled its way into pole position.

How have search behaviours changed over time?

Just because something is popular now, doesn’t mean that’s always the case. What we really want to explore is which bakes are here to stay and which have had their moment?

Our data crunching can reveal that banana bread wasn’t just for lockdown – over 90,500 people across the UK are searching for it every single month and that hasn’t changed since last year!

We’ve seen a renewed interest in Victoria sponge with a 22% increase in monthly searches year on year, similarly lemon drizzle has seen an increase by 23%. However, us Brits seem to have fallen out of love with black forest gateau with average searches for the much-loved 70’s dessert down by 18% year on year.

But the real star baker for our classic British bakes was ‘no bake cheesecake’ which has seen a whopping 49% increase in monthly searches YoY.

Looking at Google Trend data we spotted that in the last five years, searches for these delicious, low-effort bakes grew consistently with two spikes around December 2021 and April 2022. More on that later...

Turning our attention to TikTok bakes, we’ve kept a keen eye on baking phenomena, but which of those viral bakes are becoming kitchen staples and which have had their day?

Had you ever heard of cloud bread pre-2020? What about pancake cereal? Or maybe this is your first time hearing about them... They’re the baking phenomenon that have collectively amassed 5.2 BILLION views on TikTok and yet only 3,810 people in the UK searched for in October 2022.

In fact, Google searches for ‘cloud bread’ only really had their moment in August 2020, since then interest for cloud bread hasn’t risen (perhaps it needed longer in the proving drawer).

In 2021 ‘baked oats’ were everywhere; a gooey, delicious oat-based breakfast appeared on our feeds (and our kitchen counters). But, like most baking fads, it would appear that baked oats become overbaked with searches down by 33% since last year.

Just because a bake is trending on TikTok doesn’t mean it’s being searched for too – some of Britain’s most classic bakes simply aren’t getting the views on TikTok. It’s only cupcakes that have gained over a billion views with some of the UK’s classic bakes such as black forest gateau not even getting above 130,000 views globally.

Averaging TikTok and Google Search data we’ve created a new Bakeability index to predict which bakes we think will triumph in 2023.

Is it a coincidence that Google searches for ‘no bake cheesecake’ increased by 49% during the last year? We anticipate that the energy crisis is encouraging many bakers to look for no-oven or no-bake options that will save precious energy next year.

We’re predicting big things for these delicious Scandinavian swirls in 2023, delicious served warm or cold, these one-tray sweet treats scored highest on our Bakeability score.

Baking is often a really personal experience. Many people turned to baking during the various lockdowns; our connection with baking is wholesome and often a way for us to connect with our loved ones. Whether that’s through handed down recipes or experimenting in the kitchen for relatives when they come to stay. Our latest campaign, Mason Cash & Me explores the connection people have with baking.

Chloe “Baking for me is therapeutic, I really enjoy it especially after a long, stressful day.”

Sean “The thing I love most about cooking is how it brings everyone together. The emotions that come from cooking and the sharing of food is universal”.

Shereen “When I’m cooking, I zone out and I forget all the stresses of my day. It brings me back to my younger days watching cooking shows with my dad.”

Whilst what we bake may change, the reasons we bake are here to stay. Find out more about our Mason Cash & Me campaign and follow us on Instagram @masoncashuk

@masoncashuk